product supplied for motor gasoline, a proxy for consumption, was 9.3 million barrels per day. Motor gasoline is the predominant fuel for light duty vehicles in the United States. Of those specifications, a gasoline’s octane rating, which measures the fuel’s ability to withstand compression without pre–igniting, is what separates different grades of gasoline at the retail level. Gasoline has many different attributes and specifications.
Gasoline is a complex mixture of liquid hydrocarbons used as a fuel in internal combustion engines. average premium to regular price spread increased $0.05/gal. However, in the 15 years before that period, from 19, the U.S.
average retail price difference between premium gasoline and regular gasoline doubled, from approximately $0.25 per gallon (gal) to $0.50/gal. In the United States, since approximately 2010, the price difference between regular gasoline with an octane rating, or Anti–Knock Index (AKI), of 87, and premium gasoline with an AKI of 91 has been increasing. Nothing in this report should be used or construed as a recommendation for or against implementing any policies or regulations. If additional information should become available (that is, information material to the conclusions presented in this report), Baker & O’Brien has reserved the right to supplement or amend this report. Forecasts and projections in this report are the result of Baker & O’Brien’s best judgment and are inherently uncertain because of the potential impact of factors or future events that are unforeseeable or beyond Baker & O’Brien’s control. The opinions and findings in this report are based on Baker & O’Brien’s experience, expertise, skill, research, analysis, and related work to date. The results are estimates, and actual outcomes could vary.
No proprietary or confidential refining company information is solicited or included in the PRISM modeling results. The PRISM model is based on publicly available information and uses Baker & O’Brien's industry experience and knowledge. Baker & O’Brien used its PRISM™ Refining Industry Analysis modeling system to conduct this study. to analyze the factors and conditions resulting in the increasing price spread between premium and regular gasoline. This study is written for an audience already generally familiar with refining, motor gasoline markets, and petroleum chemistry terms.ĮIA retained Baker & O’Brien, Inc. To that end, this study includes a supplementary analysis of international gasoline markets to identify gasoline pricing trends similar to those occurring in the United States. gasoline market is interconnected with the global gasoline market through imports and exports. The market for motor gasoline is global, and the U.S. To assess octane costs, this study examines trends at the national, the Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD), and the regional wholesale market levels. Phase 2 of this report models possible outcomes of a change in motor gasoline octane requirements and changes in demand for octane. Phase 1 of this study examines the components of motor gasoline, motor gasoline properties and specifications, refining processes to produce motor gasoline, motor gasoline consumption, and motor gasoline production trends between 20. This study is not an examination of pricing dynamics of retail motor gasoline markets. refinery operations that would result in the increasing price differential between premium gasoline and regular retail gasoline prices since 2010. The U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) commissioned this study (Phase 1: Analysis of Gasoline Octane Costs and Phase 2: Future Gasoline Octane Scenarios) to examine the possible changes in U.S. refinery operations or retail gasoline pricing dynamics. The cause of this price spread may be the result of a change in U.S. The difference between premium gasoline and regular gasoline prices began to increase in approximately 2010. average retail premium gasoline price was $0.50 per gallon (gal) more than the price of regular gasoline. Analysis of Octane Costs: November 28, 2018
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